Operational Risk Management

      The rapidly advancing technology in the aviation field creates many challenges in maintaining a safe industry.  While the manned aviation requirements are strict, the unmanned requirements will be even stricter (once the requirements are set by the FAA).  Without the human presence on board, safety is completely reliant on the continuity of the electronics both on board the aircraft and with the operator.  One way to assess the risks associated with operating a UAV is to create an Operational Risk Management Assessment Tool.  While most hazard and risk analyses are generally used throughout all stages of a products’ life cycle; this paper will focus on the operational phase of a small commercial UAS, a DJI Phantom.

            In order to create an ORM Assessment Tool, a few steps must be taken in order to develop the tool.  The first step is a Preliminary Hazard List (PHL), a brainstorming tool used to identify initial safety issues early in the UAS operation (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  This list is broken down into stages of the flight: planning, staging, launching, flight, and recovery (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  Typically, each stage of flight has its own PHL sheet in order to reduce confusion.  Once the hazards for each stage are listed, one needs to determine the probability and severity of the hazard using the levels defined in MIL-STD-882D/E.  Per the MIL-STD-882D/E the levels of probability are: frequent, probable, occasional, remote, or improbable; and the levels of severity are: catastrophic, critical, marginal, or negligible (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  Then the risk level needs to be determined.  This is usually done with a numeric value in order to obtain a sum of the values and get a total risk assessment number; when following the MIL-STD-882D/E the lower the number, the higher the risk.  Once the initial risk levels have been identified, an analysis needs to be done to find ways to mitigate the listed hazards (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  In order to demonstrate this, an example of a PHL/A is given for the Staging stage (see figure 1). 

Figure 1 – Example of Preliminary Hazard List/Analysis

PRELIMINARY HAZARD LIST/ANALYSIS (PHL/A)
DATE:  17 Jul 2014		PREPARED BY:   Derek Iannuzzi			PAGE  2   OF   5
Operational Stage:         [ ] Planning          [X] Staging          [ ] Launch          [ ] Flight          [ ] Recovery
TRACK #	HAZARD	PROBABILITY	SEVERITY	RL	MITIGATING ACTION	RRL	NOTES
1	Nearby terrain features	Probable	Marginal	9	Change location or procedures	14
2	Nearby people	Occasional	Critical	6	Clear the area	22
3	GPS connectivity issues	Remote	Negligible	19	Change location to acquire more GPS satellites	20
4	Equipment calibration issues	Remote	Negligible	19	Calibrate UAS	24
5	Proximity to nearby airport	Improbable	Critical	15	Contact ATC	15
6	Potential for mid-air collision	Improbable	Catastrophic	12	Change flying procedures	12
7	Ability to maintain LOS	Remote	Marginal	14	Change GCS position	23
8	Improper "home" location	Remote	Negligible	19	Change location	24
RL = Risk Level, RRL = Residual Risk Level		Probability, Severity, and Risk Levels defined in MIL-STD-882D/E

Figure 1. An example of a Preliminary Hazard List/Analysis for sUAS operations in regards to a DJI Phantom during the Staging phase.  Adapted from: Barnhart, R., Hottman, S., Marshall, D., & Shappee, E. (2011). Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London: CRC Press. page 125.

            The next step is to develop an Operational Hazard Review and Analysis (OHR&A).  Just as the PHL/A tool is used to identify initial safety issues early in the UAS operation, the operational hazard review and analysis is used to identify and evaluate hazards throughout the entire operation and its stages (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  While most of the hazards in the PHL/A will be redundant in the OHR&A, the latter is more geared towards the area of human factors.  In this assessment, the hazard column is replaced with an action review column.  This column will list if the identified mitigating actions implemented from the PHL/A was adequate (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  An example of this analysis that continues from the previous PHL/A is demonstrated next (see figure 2).

Figure 2 – Example of Operational Hazard Review and Analysis

OPERATIONAL HAZARD REVIEW AND ANALYSIS (OHR&A)
DATE:  17 Jul 2014			PREPARED BY:   Derek Iannuzzi			PAGE  2   OF   5
Operational Stage:         [ ] Planning          [X] Staging          [ ] Launch          [ ] Flight          [ ] Recovery
TRACK #	ACTION REVIEW	PROBABILITY		SEVERITY	RL		MITIGATING ACTION	RRL	NOTES
1	Change location or procedures	Remote		Marginal	14		Review of new procedures	17
3	Change location to acquire more GPS satellites	Improbable		Negligible	20		Known "good" GPS acquisition locations	24
5	Contact ATC	Improbable		Critical	15		Move location away from airport proximity	22
6	Change flying procedures	Improbable		Catastrophic	12		Restrict flying to LOS	21
RL = Risk Level, RRL = Residual Risk Level		Probability, Severity, and Risk Levels defined in MIL-STD-882D/E

Figure 2. An example of a Operational Hazard Review and Analysis for sUAS operations in regards to a DJI Phantom during the Staging phase.  Adapted from: Barnhart, R., Hottman, S., Marshall, D., & Shappee, E. (2011). Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London: CRC Press. page 127.

            Finally, a Risk Assessment can be developed using the PHL/A and OHR&A worksheets.  The risk assessment provides the UAS operator with a quick look at the operation before committing to the flight activity; and it allows safety and management of real-time information needed to continually monitor the overall safety of the operation (Barnhart, Hottman, Marshall, & Shappee, 2011).  This assessment provides a quick check list in order to assess the risks associated with the operation in an easy to read form.  Unlike the previous assessment worksheets, this assessments numerical value is reversed; the lower the number, the lower the risk.  An example of a Risk Assessment for a sUAS operation of a DJI Phantom is given below (see figure 3).

Figure 3 – Example of a Risk Assessment Worksheet

sUAS Risk Assessment
Date: 17 Jul 2014		Aircraft: DJI Phantom			Serial #: 003
UAS Crew/Station:	_______________/____________           _______________/____________
	_______________/____________           _______________/____________
Mission Type	SUPPORT	TRAINING	PAYLOAD CHECK	EXPERIMENTAL
	1	2	3	4
Hardware Changes	NO			YES
	1			4
Software Changes/Calibration	NO			YES
	1			4
Airspace of Operation	WIDE OPEN	MINIMAL HAZ	MODERATE HAZ	ABUNDANT HAZ
	1	2	3	4
Operator Experience with this Aircraft	EXPERT	ADVANCED	INTERMEDIATE	NOVICE
	1	2	3	4
Flight Time	DAY			NIGHT
	1			4
Type of Flight	LOS	LOS/BLOS	BLOS	FPV
	1	2	3	4
Visibility	> 10 MILES	6-9 MILES	2-5 MILES	< 2 MILES
	1	2	3	4
Surface Winds		0-5 KTS	5-15 KTS	> 15 KTS
		2	3	4
Forecast Winds		0-5 KTS	5-15 KTS	> 15 KTS
		2	3	4
Weather Deteriorating	NO			YES
	1			4
Other Airspace Activity	NO			YES
	1			4
Established Lost Link Procedures	YES			NO
	1			NO FLIGHT
GPS Satellites Acquired	ALL 3	2	1	NONE
	1	2	3	4
Proper "home" Location Set	YES			NO
	1			4
Potential For Tx/Rx Interference	NONE	SOME	MODERATE	SEVERE
	1	2	NO FLIGHT	NO FLIGHT
Total
	RISK LEVEL
	18-27	28-36	37-45	45-56
	LOW	MEDIUM	SERIOUS	HIGH
Aircraft Number: __________________       Aircraft Type:  _______________________
Flight Released By:  _____________________________  Date: ____________  Time: ____________

Figure 3. An example of a Risk Assessment worksheet for sUAS operations in regards to a DJI Phantom.  Adapted from: Barnhart, R., Hottman, S., Marshall, D., & Shappee, E. (2011).Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London: CRC Press. page 128.

References

Barnhart, R., Hottman, S., Marshall, D., & Shappee, E. (2011). Introduction to Unmanned Aircraft Systems. London: CRC Press.